Saturday 8 March 2008

Fannie mae and fredd-I-raq: At what point will the Us Government's general insolvency force a withdrawal from Iraq and Afghanistan?

Unlike previous financial crises, which tended to be EITHER
inflationary or deflationary (the stagflation of the seventies is no
exception to this history), this one seems to show spiraling and
indeed semi-permanent trends in both directions. As such, the
traditional economic therapies such as inflating your way out of
recession, or deflating prices to preserve the value of the currency,
will not work. Likewise, under these circumstances, the notion that
all economies, under all circumstances, benefit economically from a
"good war" is exposed for lacking even the faintest to tether to
reality. While the second world war may have "helped" depressed
economies by stimulating 100% employment under a highly socialized
militarism, the wars of the current administration not only decrease
overall employment by draining funds out of more peaceful, less
expensive public sectors like health and education, but, more
importantly for the current argument, it contributes greatly to the
overall insolvency of the debt-laden federal government. There have
been a few prominent treatments of the effects of the iraq war on the
economy, but the notion that the cost of the war could ultimately
contribute to the destabilization of the banking system has largely
been over looked.
If, as seems increasingly clear, median house prices will drop to
approximately 3 times annual median income from its current level of
4, with large metropolises in the west dropping from a multiple of 10
to something like 6, banks will demand, as they in fact already are,
that government sponsored enterprises like fannie mae and freddie mac
step in, with help from the federal reserve, to back their worthless
assets with taxpayer money as the deflationary collapse progresses.
At what point, I wonder, would the treasury be forced to make the
very difficult choice between bailing-out over-privileged multi-
billionaires and funding their pursuit of imperial, neo-colonial
enterprises overseas? If loses in the property market sneak toward 5
or 7 trillion from current levels it is difficult to see how the
government could fail to step in on a quite massive scale. On the
other hand, its own debt is already so immense as to only really
exist at the most sublime level of abstraction. Likewise, the
american taxpayer is leveraged to the hilt, and in most cases won't
see a real wage increase for at least fifteen years. Fucked from
every direction, we may have long ago squandered the money necessary
to continue the wars. This, of course, will only start to become
apparent when the treasury fails to intervene at the collapse of some
major financial entity, and when federal funding to everything
outside the military complex suddenly seems to be drying up.
Military enterprises will certainly be the last to fall, but it may
not be after a general deflationary commodity collapse.

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