Tuesday 23 September 2008

Market>Commodity>Dollar

Its finally universally understood that money fleeing the market dives into oil and other commodities before hiding in the dollar.  For months some of the more charming popular economists maintained a mystical veneer around their denials that speculation could have anything to do with surging oil prices.  The point wasn't well-argued on either side.
In this third round of deflation we should see a small spike in commodities before a steep drop and then a somewhat stronger rise in the dollar as other economies eat shit - depending of course on how many trillions of dollars the Treasury prints this week.  We'll see.
It will take years for that cash to come back out and play, and by the time it does, a "techmoddity" economy may well have replaced financial services, where vehicles will have to be as efficiently modular as the concepts in which they invest.

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