Tuesday 7 October 2008

Fragility of concept "europe": spectres of an era thought gone

The financial warfare taking place between European states at the moment (battling for foreign deposits, threatening snap independent bailouts and recapitalizations) has startling echoes of the trade disputes of previous centuries. Strategically, this could be important to Warschington if investors begin to perceive the Euro as a captainless ship. This would back the possibility of a scenario where we see a hyper-inflationary depression in Europe, and a deflationary collapse in the states. This becomes all the more likely, the longer Europe seems to trend down ahead of the US. Of course, the thought of recapitalizing the US banking system by printing dollars and then treating Europe like a gigantic corporate costco would be very appealing to certain elements, especially after the recent humiliations of the iraq war, etc. The ECB is somewhat hog-tied in its ability to respond, at least with inflation still looming. The Krug-monster is arguing that the virality of the crisis is essentially financial rather than commodity-trade-based. If he is right, it should be extraordinarily easy to write everything off on the US debt side and sabotage the Euro.

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